With the legalization of sports betting expanding to new states every year, more and more college football fans are beginning to wager on the sport they love. The problem? Not everybody knows what they’re doing. It’s fun to gamble on the favorite or pick the program that is local a big game, but it is better yet to really win.
With this inaugural college football guide, newcomers — and perhaps veterans who require a refresher — could have a way to learn the particulars of betting in the sport, including best practices when picking spreads and totals, whether trends really are a good indicator of future success and just just how to have as fun that is much possible without depleting your bank account.
After all, if you win money along the way, that would be pretty good, too.
College football basics that are betting*)What could you bet in college football? Those are more difficult to master while sportsbooks will offer prop bets on players and game-time situations during the season. Particularly if one does not understand the basics. The bread and butter of college football betting still consists of three areas: the true point spread (or “spread”), the full total and also the money line.
The spread: the absolute most bet that is popular the spread is the number of points given to a team to handicap a game with two equally likely outcomes. For example, Nebraska (-12) faces Northwestern (+12). The 12 points is the spread with Nebraska listed as a 12-point favorite and Northwestern a underdog that is 12-point. In this scenario, Northwestern is spotted 12 points, beginning the video game having an imaginary lead that is 12-0. (for you to win your bet*)If you bet Nebraska -12, it needs to win the game by at least 13 points. In the event that you bet Northwestern +12, the Wildcats want to either win the game outright or lose by 11 points or fewer to win your bet. If Nebraska wins the video game by 12 points, it is known as a push, along with your bet on either relative side of the spread is refunded.
The total: This represents the points that are total in the video game. The sum total for Nebraska vs. Northwestern is 50.5 points. So, do you consider significantly more than 50.5 points are going to be scored or less? You bet Over 50.5 if you think more. If you think less, bet Under 50.5.
The moneyline: This is the simplest bet as you can pick who will win the game outright. However, each bet comes with odds attached given oddsmakers believe it is more nebraska that is likely Northwestern compared to the other way around. You will do so at -475 odds if you want to bet Nebraska. At +360 odds if you believe Northwestern will win, you can bet it. Those it’s likely that according to a $100 bet. For Nebraska, -475 means you need to bet $475 to win $100. For Northwestern, +360 means you would win $360 if without a doubt $100. A price is being paid by you given the likelihood of your chosen outcome occurring.
Odds: Moneylines are not the bets that are only odds mounted on them. Spread and bets that are total odds as well. Continuing our example, Nebraska -12 is listed with (-110) attached. Northwestern +12 has (-110) also, as do both relative sides associated with total. This is certainly called the “juice” or “vigorish” (a.k.a. “vig”). Essentially, it is simply how much you are charged by the sportsbook for the ability to make the bet. While -110 is standard, the odds can fluctuate for spreads and totals as low as +100 (even odds) or usually no higher than around -130. Like the moneyline, with -110 juice, you have to bet $110 to win $100, but the other factor you must consider is called implied odds.
Implied odds
To put it another way, how often do you have to win a bet that is particular generate income? The math is easy. In the event that it’s likely that a number that is negative remove the negative and add 100 to that number. Then divide the original odds by the number that is new. So, for -110, we add 100 to 110 to obtain 210. We then divide 110 by 210 to obtain 52.38%. This means you need to be correct 52.38% associated with right time to make money on that wager. The process is slightly different if the juice is a positive number. Using Northwestern’s money type of +360, we again add 100 to your 360 before dividing 100 because of the number that is new. So, it would be 100 divided by 460, which equals 21.74%. Northwestern needs to win the game 21.74% of the time. Those are its odds that are implied.
“But, Tom, they equal more than 100%? if I add up the implied odds of all these bets, don’t” Yep! That’s how the casinos and sportsbooks make money! So, have fun betting, but if you want to make money in the run that is long focus on the implied odds.
Now that individuals’ve gotten the training taken care of, why don’t we arrive at a few of the fun stuff.
do I need to bet favorites or underdogs?
In a world that is simple favorites would cover half the time, and underdogs would cover the other half with the occasional push here and there. But the world is not simple, and while sportsbooks have algorithms to calculate the most outcomes that are likely humans still put the bets. Humans have tendencies.
In short, people prefer betting favorites in comparison to underdogs. It’s a good idea. Those bets that are placing to win, and the favorites are considered the better teams. So, why would you bet on a worse team? Well, it doesn’t exactly work that way.
Over the last five seasons (since 2017), underdogs have gone 1,985-1,955-66 against the spread (ATS). This does not mean you’d have won money if you bet every underdog (it’s only a .503 win rate, and remember what I just taught you about implied odds?), but it is an example of how the public that is betting skew results.
in regards to making a choice on betting favorites or underdogs, bet the medial side you would imagine is most probably to win that specific game.
most favorites that are successfulmin. 20 games)
1. Utah State
21-8
.724
2. UAB
22-12-3
.647
3. Tulane
21-12
.636
4. Virginia
18-11-1
.621
5. Notre Dame
31-19-2
.620
6. Buffalo
24-15
.615
6. Navy
16-10
.615
8. Texas A&M
25-16-2
.610
9. Central Michigan
14-9
.609
10. Pittsburgh
21-14-1
.600
most favorites that are frequent*)1. Alabama (68)
37-31
.544
2. Clemson (65)
37-27-1
.578
3. Georgia (62)
37-25
.597
4. Oklahoma (60)
29-30-1
.492
5. Ohio State (59)
30-28-1
.517
6. Wisconsin (54)
27-27
.500
6. Appalachian State (54)
25-27-2
.481
8. UCF (53)
25-27-1
.481
9. Notre Dame (52)
31-19-2
.620
10. Oklahoma State (51)
27-23-1
.540
most underdogs that are successfulmin. 20 games)
1. Purdue
20-8
.714
2. California
22-9
.710
3. Baylor
20-11-1
.645
4. Iowa State
16-9
.640
5. Tulsa
21-12
.636
5. Eastern Michigan
21-12
.636
7. Arizona State
17-10
.630
8. Army
15-9
.625
8. Louisiana
15-9-1
.625
10. Nevada
19-12-1
.613
most underdogs that are frequent*)1. Texas State (49)
24-23-2
.511
1. Kansas (49)
21-26-2
.447
3. Bowling Green (47)
16-31
.340
4. UNLV (45)
23-19-3
.548
4. Rutgers (45)
22-23
.489
4. East Carolina (45)
20-24-1
.455
7. Illinois (44)
22-21-1
.512
7. Rice (44)
20-23-1
.465
7. UTEP (44)
16-26-2
.381
7. Akron (44)
16-28
.364
OK, what is the trick?
Sadly, there is not one. There’s no fool-proof solution to know which team to bet for almost any given game, but you can take away if you look at the charts above, there are some hints. For instance, when looking at the united teams which were favored the essential often, can you notice a trend into the teams that perform the greatest?
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State have covered at the least 54% of times as favorites since 2017. Them all had defenses that are excellent that time. The best teams in the national country are going to be favored significantly more than everyone else (duh!), but the majority of of these can score points. That is the way they win games. But to win games and cover spreads, you have to also stop your opponent from scoring. So, whilst it’s not just a rule, I stay away from betting a well liked having a defense that is bad.
As for underdogs, I like teams that do a good job taking care of the football on offense while playing defense that is good. Those types of teams produce a practice of sticking around in games, that leads to upsets that are outright spreads being covered.
Is the over or under a better bet?
It’s no different than favorites and underdogs. People are more likely to bet the over because it’s more fun for the fan that is average watch games and root for points to be scored rather than cheering on defenses. Sportsbooks understand that and adjust the totals to account fully for it. This is exactly why the under has gone 2,045-1,910-54 since 2017 for the mark that is winning of%. Let’s took a look at the teams that are key know with data dating back again to 2017.
Best ‘over’ teams
1. FIU
36-20
.643
2. UMass
31-18-2
.633
3. Oregon State
34-22
.607
4. Kansas
33-23-1
.589
5. New York
35-25-1
.583
6. Michigan
34-25
.576
7. Marshall
35-26-1
.574
8. Toledo
33-25
.569
8. Buffalo
33-25
.569
T9. Louisville, Ohio State
34-26
.567
Best ‘under’ teams
1. North Park State
39-21-1
.650
2. California
35-19
.648
3. South Alabama
36-22
.621
4. Iowa State
39-24-1
.619
5. Washington
34-21
.618
6. Wyoming
35-22
.614
7. Akron
34-22
.607
7. Mississippi State
37-24-2
.607
9. Auburn
38-25-1
.603
10. Kansas State
36-24-1
.600
OK, what is the trick here?
Like betting spreads, there isn’t any way that is surefire win betting totals; if there were, sportsbooks would quickly adjust. Still, there are stats worth reviewing. For example, typically, teams that run more plays per game play in higher scoring games and vice versa.
Red-zone efficiency is another sign that is telltale. Lots of offenses drive along the field, but after they get in the 20, they battle to finish drives as defenses tense up, and there’sn’t as room that is much exploit. Also, look to see how defenses do in the situation that is same. If you a game title featuring two teams which are strong into the zone that is red offense facing defenses that are bad in the red zone, there will probably be a lot of points scored! If it’s two bad offenses and two good defenses, consider the under!
Again, sportsbooks are aware of this, too, but when you see a game with a notably high or total that is low remember it absolutely was set this way for the reason. Do not overthink it. And don’t forget: there are not any answers that are easy. Before placing a bet — whether spread, total or moneyline — do as much research into the teams as possible and then make what you think the play that is best is according to that which you know. From then on, it is from your hands.
Do trends matter?
Not nearly just as much as some could have you think. Trends don’t possess much — if any — predictive value, nevertheless they could be used to better understand just why certain events happen. For example, you may that the team has gone ATS that are 6-2 its last eight home games. That’s great, but does that make it an home that is incredible, or have its last eight home games been against nobodies? The trend alone does not inform you that. You need to dig deeper when it comes to context.
Sample sizes are essential. Rather than going ATS that are 6-2 its last eight home games, if a team was 30-10 ATS over its last 40 home games, that’s worth consideration. This team may have an advantage playing at home that the written books are not considering.
One such trend i have long screamed about is betting the under in games between service academies (Air Force, Army and Navy). All three use option offenses and often run the ball. This leads to fewer plays in their games than in typical contests and fewer possessions that are overall. As being a total result, there are fewer scoring opportunities.
This helps explain why the under has gone 41-9-1 in the 51 games between the three teams since 2005. That includes eight straight unders with it hitting in 23 of the last 25 games that are such. Still, the trend is on borrowed time, even while reliable since it happens to be. For decades, books set the full total for those games into the mid-40s to mid-50s. The final five meetings have observed the set that is total 36 and 39.5. As they always do, the sportsbooks are adjusting.
Any other tips?
Avoid parlays. They are constantly pushing parlays on you if you pay attention to commercials and promotions for sportsbooks and sports betting apps, you’ll notice how. They are doing this for the reason: It really is tough to choose one bet that is winning, and parlays add many more layers of difficulty. They sell the large payouts, but the payouts are that large for a reason: The sportsbook seldom has to pay them.
Think of it like this: Let’s say you have a genuine 50% chance to win any bet that is single place. The bet to win the parlay if you’re betting a four-leg parlay with 50% odds on each leg, there’s only a 6.25% chance. And the odds you get will not reflect that unlikelihood.
The “juice” we mentioned earlier is applied to every leg of a parlay. The payout that is prospective a lot higher compared to a standard bet, but so could be the juice you are paying. Given you are a lot more prone to lose a parlay compared to a single bet, you are paying more juice for the outcome that is less-likely. That’s a that is lose-lose
Have fun. This is basically the most piece that is important of I can give you about betting on college football or any sport. There has been a lot of math in this guide that is betting do not let it overwhelm you. If you are enjoying it — and only amounts that are betting’re comfortable with potentially losing — that’s all that matters. If you want to bet parlays, do it! It’s fine, I won’t judge you (too much)!
Remember, the overwhelming majority of sports bettors lose money in the run that is long. Yes, even your friend who claims they always win. It really is into the design. If you are enjoying it, do it now. Most hobbies cost money, and sports betting is not any different. You to college football betting, and return the favor.(* if you do turn out to be some kind of super gambler, remember who introduced)
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